With the rising cost of petrol, high influx of Traffic and
high cost of maintenance for vehicles, one would think that the
environmentalist approach of owning less cars would be attractive. Well guess
again. maybe not for long. The industry is inching towards self-driving cars, maybe it’s time to consider trading in the family wagon
and simply hail a lift?
The argument is seductively simple. We can’t do without
cars. No transport alternative offers the same flexibility, personalized
comfort and sense of control. But automobiles are spectacularly inefficient in
terms of environmental and personal cost. Cars depreciate rapidly, are left
idle most of their life-time, eat through fuel while seats are often left empty
and they demand no end of real-estate to be parked on.
Autonomous taxis would be more expensive than a normal car,
but with no driver the running costs would be substantially lower. Operators
would therefore be likely to run large fleets and would keep their cars on the
road for as long as possible – meaning that in areas of high population a
vehicle would never be too far away.
These vehicles would be different. Just as electric cars
have increased interior space by doing away with the engine, dispensing with
the steering wheel, gear stick and other controls would free up room for extra
people and their belongings.
But it’s all not just too good to be true, there are substantial
limitations on autonomous vehicles. Cars are reliant on processing, in advance,
extensively mapped environments – making any spontaneous deviations from a
route difficult. Snow, heavy rain or bright light can cause havoc with sensors,
and “reading” visual symbols such as a police officer signalling would be
beyond most current processors
Add to this, the cyber-security risks inherent in all
connected vehicles and it becomes plain just how much work developers have to
do.
Even if these challenges can be overcome in any realistic
time-frame the usual drawback of car-sharing services would still apply to
autonomous vehicles. Being able to hail a taxi when you want it, never mind in
the form one desires it, requires a huge fleet to be operating in densely
populated area. We’d also need advanced GPS mapping and tracking systems and
large out-of-town charging bays – because although more autonomous taxis would
mean less parking needed overall, the fleet as a whole would likely seek
cheaper overnight charging at a similar time.
Yet what was once science fiction has a tendency to move
into the mainstream. Carmakers such as BMW and Tesla have been acquiring
driverless technology, as have tech giants Google and Apple – not to mention
the car-and-driver-for-hire firm Uber. Indeed one doesn’t need to be an early
adopter to see driver assistance and connected technologies becoming
commonplace. Crossing the hurdle to fully autonomous vehicles will be a major
challenge, but once it has been credibly achieved (and credibility is
everything), a whole new market may be awaiting the pioneers.
Ultimately this is the point. From San Francisco to Moscow,
from Seoul to mighty Coventry (where the UK’s largest driverless car test is
taking place), there is a digital infrastructure being laid down and growing
expectations among the younger generation of ever more connectivity. Autonomous
taxis may not be appropriate everywhere or for everyone, but they do have the
potential to capture a large slice of interest in urban centres and, because
the capital costs are borne by the transport operators not individuals, there
is lots of potential for the business models to spread quickly.
By 2030 our cities, not to mention our cars, may start
looking very different. It might be worth thinking about grassing over your
driveway.
Read more at weforum.org
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